Unlike Disney’s other live-action adaptations, The Little Mermaid has a significantly high production budget estimated at around $250 million, according to sources from Deadline. Additionally, Disney allocated approximately $140 million specifically for the global marketing campaign leading up to the film’s release. With such high expenses, the film starring Halle Bailey is projected to earn between $625 million and $650 million at the box office to break even.
This target budget signifies a substantial investment in the current film market, especially considering the recent challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for Disney, the projected box office return is a reasonable goal that does not appear overly ambitious for this project. Live-action films have historically been a “money-making” avenue for the studio, despite facing substantial criticism regarding their quality. Previous works such as Alice in Wonderland, Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast, and The Lion King have all surpassed their production budgets relatively easily.
Before its release, many international experts predicted The Little Mermaid would be a significant success. Some forecasts estimated the film could generate around $1 billion due to the strong source material. Alongside this, numerous early reviews from critics have praised the film’s quality, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 71% prior to its release.
Box Office Performance of The Little Mermaid
The Little Mermaid opened to impressive earnings at the North American box office, grossing $118 million after just four days, benefiting from the Memorial Day weekend. This achievement closely matched the opening weekend of Aladdin ($117 million) but fell short of The Lion King ($191 million). However, the film did not perform as well in many international markets, particularly in China. The opening weekend gross for The Little Mermaid in North America was $2.5 million, just shy of Aladdin’s $53 million during its debut in the region. According to ticketing platform Maoyan, the mermaid Ariel is likely to earn approximately $4 million after the weekend.
Furthermore, The Little Mermaid is currently facing strong competition from multiple international markets, including South Korea, France, Germany, and Vietnam. Many audiences have expressed dissatisfaction with Disney’s alterations to character designs and personalities in the film. Notably, some viewers believe that lead actress Halle Bailey does not fit the role of Ariel, despite her evident talent. The portrayal of Prince Eric also failed to resonate with a segment of the audience.
The film’s total international revenue currently stands at $78 million. The Little Mermaid still has the potential to gain traction in larger markets such as Japan, Italy, and Brazil. However, the audience reception in these countries has not been overwhelmingly positive regarding Disney’s project. Before its release, some sources indicated the film could earn around $250 million in international markets. However, this target now seems increasingly distant as China and several other countries with burgeoning film industries have yet to respond favorably to the project.
If the film fails in these international markets, the potential losses for The Little Mermaid could be significant. According to Deadline’s observations, Disney’s film is now facing challenging circumstances as domestic (North America) earnings and international markets show considerable disparities. While American audiences seem to be more receptive, audiences elsewhere have not been as enthusiastic.
It is evident that The Little Mermaid is not solely a Disney film that resonates with audiences outside of North America. This shortfall represents a crucial gap in the team’s creative vision. Following the strong impacts of COVID-19, domestic revenues are likely to hinder Hollywood blockbusters from thriving or even breaking even. Last year, Avatar: The Way of Water grossed over $2 billion but still generated only about $684 million in North America. Disney’s The Little Mermaid faces significant challenges to achieve similar box office milestones.
Causes Behind the Mixed Reception
Recently, on various social media platforms and film discussion forums, many individuals have debated the reasons behind The Little Mermaid‘s mixed reception. Some audiences suggest that the film began failing from the casting announcement itself. Halle Bailey, in particular, is viewed as significantly different from the animated character Ariel. Her singing style, which evokes comparisons to Beyoncé’s “voice of a generation,” also doesn’t seem to fit the character’s portrayal.
However, many audiences do not blame Halle Bailey but rather attribute the film’s shortcomings to the overall production team’s efforts. The character development, particularly the aesthetic choices for the characters, has been criticized as a significant failure. Many believe Disney’s creative decisions lacked innovation, leading to a film that feels empty. The project fails to capture the essence of the animated classic, which was pivotal to its success.
According to Deadline’s observations, The Little Mermaid is currently facing significant challenges. The film is now in a precarious situation as it cannot afford to lose more ground in the box office, particularly with the ongoing summer blockbuster season featuring numerous high-profile releases such as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Transformers 7, The Flash, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Disney may still be able to recoup some of its losses through streaming releases, merchandising rights, and related products. However, this revenue is heavily reliant on the performance of The Little Mermaid in theaters. An industry expert shared with Deadline: “The revenue from The Little Mermaid is not a total failure, but it does signify a challenging hurdle, especially since it comes at a time when Disney’s box office strategy is under scrutiny for live-action films released recently.”
Image: Disney
