The Disappointing Conclusion Titled Venom 3
Sony Pictures has announced Venom: The Last Dance as the final installment in the comedic series about the extraterrestrial symbiote bonding with the down-and-out Eddie Brock, portrayed by Tom Hardy. However, with a disappointing domestic opening of $51 million—44% and 55% lower than its two predecessors—this installment signals a potential end of the superhero genre’s dominance at the box office.
The superhero film genre has long been considered a “cash cow” for the film industry. From 2018 to 2019, the average global box office for superhero films exceeded $1 billion. This year, that number has been cut in half, even with the unprecedented success of Deadpool & Wolverine.
In reality, the collaboration between Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman has made their comic book film the only hit since the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in June 2023. Since then, this genre has faced significant challenges at the box office. From The Flash, The Marvels, to Madame Web, the returns have been dismal.
From 2015 to 2019, 25 out of 30 superhero films (83%) grossed over $500 million globally. However, post-pandemic, the trend has reversed: since 2022, 10 out of 17 superhero films (59%) earned less than $500 million worldwide.
The reasons for fluctuating box office returns vary depending on each film. DC has faced setbacks due to mismanagement and leadership changes. Marvel has diluted its market presence with its Disney+ programming and is currently in a phase of reducing new film releases. Meanwhile, Sony is focusing on developing a universe around Spider-Man characters without Spider-Man himself. Nonetheless, the common denominator is a noticeable decline in box office value for this genre.
The Challenge of Replicating the Success of Deadpool & Wolverine
Financial “headwinds” create pressure for the superhero film lineup scheduled for 2025. Following the release of Deadpool & Wolverine in 2024, Marvel Studios is ramping up production with three major films: Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
“Nothing is certain here. There’s still a lot of goodwill for Marvel. This is still the largest superhero film franchise in Hollywood. However, to answer the question of whether new projects can replicate the success of Deadpool & Wolverine, I don’t see the potential occurring with any of the films in this lineup,” said analyst Jeff Bock from Exhibitor Relations.
One crucial element that Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts must address is the marketability of their characters and narratives, drawing from a number of previous Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films, including Disney+ series like The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Hawkeye, alongside films like Black Widow, Eternals, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Captain America: Civil War, and even the 2008 film The Incredible Hulk.
The continuity of these characters has historically served as a strength for Marvel Studios since its inception, yet they have been seen as a hindrance for recent projects like Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Secret Invasion, and The Marvels.
Conversely, The Fantastic Four has been placed in a new timeline, allowing the film to carve a new path while the characters in the MCU remain in the spotlight.
Looking at the broader picture, the superhero genre holds particular significance within the Marvel comic universe as it is known as the first superhero family. However, two films from 20th Century Fox in the 2000s and 2010s were both flops.
Marvel Studios cannot afford to let this happen again: Robert Downey Jr. is reportedly ready to reprise his role as the villain Doctor Doom in Avengers: Doomsday, set for 2026. Alongside Avengers: Secret Wars in 2027, the film will be directed by Joe and Anthony Russo—who directed the two previous Avengers films that grossed over $2 billion globally. In other words, Marvel has set a high bar for itself when reintroducing these beloved characters while facing the daunting challenge of meeting those standards.
“Fantastic Four must surpass the box office of Captain America and Thunderbolts because they want to include a few more Avengers in the mix,” Bock stated.
Marvel Studios is also committed to producing a new Spider-Man film in collaboration with Sony Pictures featuring Tom Holland, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings).
Sony Animation is also producing the third Spider-Verse film (which will also be the final installment) and the animated series Spider-Noir featuring Nicolas Cage for Amazon. However, the future of Sony’s Spider-Man Universe (SSU), which operates without Holland or Marvel Studios, remains uncertain.
Despite the conclusion of Venom: The Last Dance ending on a note of optimism in its after-credit scene, there are currently no other SSU projects listed by Sony following the release of Kraven the Hunter (rated R) in December, featuring Aaron Taylor-Johnson.
“The SSU is not dead yet, but Venom is feeling the crushing pressure of the superhero film market. This may not be the best environment for the franchise, which previously had some promising projects lined up in the Spider-Man universe. There’s no doubt that Sony needs to revisit its plans,” experts suggest.
Uncertain Future
However, the strongest competition for superhero films in 2025 is set to come from DC Studios. In January 2023, newly appointed co-directors James Gunn and Peter Safran announced a completely new slate of 10 films and animated series, designed to revitalize the DC film universe (DCU) with a more innovative approach.
The first project on this new slate is the animated series Creature Commandos, set to premiere on Max in December. However, the centerpiece project is Superman, for which Gunn is writing the script and directing.
“I don’t think we need to emphasize the importance of Superman to the entire DCU. It could potentially open with over $100 million (domestically), something DC has struggled to achieve for a while, aside from The Batman in 2022, similar to Joker: Folie à Deux, which is produced outside of the DCU. Warner Bros. and DC have a lot at stake if Superman does not succeed. They need to make some significant decisions,” Bock notes.
Gunn and Safran have committed to not moving forward with any DC projects unless the script is complete, which also helps mitigate risks for the company if Superman fails. Only two projects—Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow and the streaming series Lanterns—are currently in production, alongside the animated film Dynamic Duo. Other projects featuring lesser-known characters like Booster Gold, Swamp Thing, and Authority have yet to receive a green light.
Nonetheless, Warner Bros. and Disney are still firmly committed to their DC and Marvel film projects during this decade.
“There aren’t any films that could potentially replace superhero films in box office discussions regarding revenue generation. Until we see another genre rising in prominence, we will continue investing in this genre,” Bock concludes.
